Matchup results from the BMW Championship: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Rory McIlroy (+105) over Brooks Koepka); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (Patrick Cantlay (-111) over Jordan Spieth); Everybody else: 0 for 1.
Matchup Results this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Alldrick: 27-15-1 (up 6.63 units); Hennessey: 24-17-3 (up 5.22 units); Powers: 23-19-4 (up 1.93 units); Gdula: 22-22-2 (down 1.12 units); Gehman: 20-24-2 (down 4.61 units); Mayo: 18-24-3 (down 6.83 units); Caddie: 16-25-5 (down 7.79 units).
Tour Championship 2021 picks: Top 10
Caddie: Rory McIlroy (-110, FanDuel) – Rory loves East Lake, and in a 30-man field at nearly even odds, this feels like a safe bet based on how well we saw him play last week.
Mayo: Sam Burns (+160, DraftKings) — Playing too well right now and is starting the tournament tied for sixth.
Gdula: Daniel Berger (+490, FanDuel) — Berger starts at even par and is, then, four shots out of T-10 to start the event, so he has ground to make up. However, we’d normally be boosting him at a course that rewards accuracy and has Bermuda greens, so that checks out for him at East Lake. Berger is also fourth in this field in adjusted strokes-gained/tee-to-green over the past three months in my database.
Gehman: Sam Burns (+160, DraftKings) — Burns has plenty of upside and firepower to move up the board, but he won’t necessarily need it to cash this wager. He’s going to start the Tour Championship at four under, in a tie for sixth place. We’ve seen Burns thrive when he gets the advantage of four guaranteed rounds and as long as he avoids disasters, he will make plenty of noise this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (+115, FanDuel) – Xander ranks first in this field in SG/total in the past 24 rounds at East Lake, per Fantasy National. Though he starts eight strokes back, he’s just two shots back of what would be T-6 right now. I love Xander’s chances of doing that, and I’m sure he does, too.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sungjae Im (+180, DraftKings) — Sungjae seems to be rounding into form and he’s playing on his favorite putting surface.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Scottie Scheffler (+300, FanDuel) — Scheffler loves playing at East Lake and ranks fifth in the field this week for total strokes-gained at the Tour Championship course. He has five top-14 finishes in his last eight events so a top 10 here in a 30-man event is within his grasp.
Top-10 results from the BMW Championship: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Rory McIlroy (+230); Everybody else: 0 for 1.
Top-10 results from this season: Gehman: 10 for 43 (up 12.85 units); Hennessey: 7 for 41 (down 1.87 units); Powers: 8 for 43 (down 4.37 units); Gdula: 4 for 42 (down 14 units); Tour caddie: 7 for 42 (down 17.98 units); Mayo: 4 for 42 (down 19.2 units); Alldrick: 3 for 41 (down 26.5 units).