Matchup results from The Northern Trust: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Daniel Berger (+120) over Dustin Johnson); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (Xander Schauffele (+100) over Collin Morikawa; Powers: 1 for 1 (Maverick McNealy (+105) over Kevin Kisner); Caddie: Push (Bryson DeChambeau (-125) over Brooks Koepka); Gdula, Gehman, Hennessey: 0 for 1.
Matchup Results this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 24-16-3 (up 6.22 units); Alldrick: 26-15-1 (up 5.73 units); Powers: 23-18-4 (up 2.93 units); Gdula: 22-21-2 (down 0.12 units); Gehman: 20-23-2 (down 3.61 units); Caddie: 16-24-5 (down 6.79 units); Mayo: 17-24-3 (down 7.88 units)
BMW Championship 2021 picks: Top 10
Caddie: Justin Thomas (+180, DraftKings) — JT’s putter was red-hot on Thursday, and though it cooled down Friday and Saturday, he gained almost two strokes Sunday, too, and gained in four straight rounds for the first time since May. If the putting’s back, watch out.
Mayo: Rory McIlroy (+230, DraftKings) — Always live at a Fazio design, Rory showed flashes at Liberty National only to be undone by giant numbers. There’s far more room for error this week.
Gdula: Viktor Hovland (+300, FanDuel) — When I combine key stats for this week and long-term adjusted form, Hovland is actually sitting third among all golfers in the field in my model. He’s got such good ball-striking that he should hit fairways when needed and find these small greens in regulation.
Gehman: Charley Hoffman (+650, FanDuel) — After a scorching start to the calendar year, Hoffman went through a bit of a slump in the summer but it appears he’s getting back on track. He gained strokes both off-the-tee and on approach at The Northern Trust and his metrics are much more reminiscent of his stretch from April to May when he had six straight top-20 finishes.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Charley Hoffman (+650, FanDuel) — Hoffman gained nearly six strokes on approach in the final three rounds—an insane clip—to surge up the leader board. If he keeps those irons hot for four rounds, he could be a real contender.
Powers, Golf Digest: Corey Conners (+350, DraftKings) — Despite losing strokes putting in seven of his last eight measured events, Conners has still managed to pick up five top-21 finishes during that stretch. All the guy does is put on a tee-to-green masterclass week after week. A mediocre putting performance should be enough to cash a top 10, and maybe something bigger than that.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Hideki Matsuyama (+350, DraftKings) — Matsuyama comes into this event ranked 14th for opportunities gained over the last two months and fifth for SG/tee-to-green over the same period. He also has one of the best long-term stats in the field and his strong approach game should mean he gains an advantage over the majority of the field here at Caves Valley Golf Club.
Top-10 results from The Northern Trust: Everybody: 0 for 1.
Top-10 results from this season: Gehman: 10 for 42 (up 13.85 units); Hennessey: 7 for 40 (down 0.87 units); Powers: 8 for 42 (down 3.37 units); Gdula: 4 for 41 (down 13 units); Tour caddie: 7 for 41 (down 16.98 units); Mayo: 3 for 41 (down 21.5 units); Alldrick: 3 for 40 (down 25.5 units).
BMW Championship 2021 picks: One and Done
Gehman: Harris English — I use a strategy for One and Done that allows me to burn through all my best players early instead of saving golfers for the end of the season. Now that we have arrived at the end of the season, it’s the best man available and this week that’s Harris English. He was a bit inconsistent last week at The Northern Trust but his game has been sharp all year long.
Previous weeks: Safeway Open: Joel Dahmen; U.S. Open: Jon Rahm; Corales: Denny McCarthy. Sanderson: Sebastian Munoz. Shriners: Matthew Wolff. CJ Cup: Xander Schauffele. Zozo: Bubba Watson. Bermuda: Rasmus Hojgaard. Houston: Lanto Griffin. Masters: Rory McIlroy. RSM: Webb Simpson. Sentry TOC: Patrick Reed. Sony: Abraham Ancer. AMEX: Patrick Cantlay. Torrey: Jon Rahm. Waste Management: Webb Simpson. AT&T Pebble Beach: Jason Day. Genesis Invitational: Rory McIlroy. WGC-Workday: Tyrrell Hatton. The Players: Bryson DeChambeau; Honda Classic: Sungjae Im. WGC-Match Play: Patrick Reed. Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth. The Masters: Dustin Johnson. RBC Heritage: Daniel Berger. Valspar: Paul Casey. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. AT&T Byron Nelson: Sam Burns. PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa. Charles Schwab Challenge: Charley Hoffman. Memorial Tournament: Billy Horschel. Palmetto Championship: Lucas Glover. U.S. Open: Brooks Koepka. Travelers Championship: Keegan Bradley. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Jason Kokrak. John Deere Classic: Kevin Streelman. 3M Open: Maverick McNealy. Wyndham Championship: Webb Simpson. The Northern Trust: Bryson DeChambeau.
Hennessey: Patrick Cantlay — At this point, you’re going to use the best player you have available. I haven’t used Cantlay here, and his all-around game should definitely translate to Caves Valley.
Previous weeks: Safeway Open: Phil Mickelson; U.S. Open: Hideki Matsuyama; Corales: Adam Long. Sanderson: Sam Burns. Shriners: Harris English. CJ Cup: Kevin Na. Zozo: Joaquin Niemann. Bermuda: Doc Redman. Houston: Russell Henley. Masters: Tyrrell Hatton. RSM: Brian Harman. Sentry TOC: Justin Thomas. Sony: Ryan Palmer. AMEX: Scottie Scheffler. Torrey: Sungjae Im. Waste Management: Daniel Berger. AT&T Pebble Beach: Francesco Molinari. Genesis Invitational: Tony Finau. WGC-Workday: Xander Schauffele. The Players: Jordan Spieth. Honda Classic: Adam Scott. WGC-Match Play: Patrick Reed. Valero Texas Open: Chris Kirk. The Masters: Dustin Johnson. RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson. Valspar: Charley Hoffman. Wells Fargo: Max Homa. AT&T Byron Nelson: Will Zalatoris. PGA Championship: Xander Schauffele. Charles Schwab Challenge: Abraham Ancer. Memorial Tournament: Collin Morikawa. Palmetto Championship: Matt Fitzpatrick. U.S. Open: Jon Rahm. Travelers Championship: Paul Casey. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau. John Deere Classic: Alex Noren. 3M Open: Bubba Watson.
Powers: Viktor Hovland — The chipping and putting has been noticeably bad over the last few weeks, so bad that he actually bent his putter on Monday at Liberty National. New flat stick, new Vik? We’re going to find out. Let’s hope so, because he’s wasting some seriously good off-the-tee and approach play.
Previous weeks: Safeway Open: Brendan Steele; U.S. Open: Louis Oosthuizen; Corales: Adam Long. Sanderson: Sam Burns. Shriners: Jason Kokrak. CJ Cup: Daniel Berger. Zozo: Joaquin Niemann. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. Houston: Russell Henley. Masters: Bubba Watson. RSM: Brian Harman. Mayakoba: Corey Conners. Sentry TOC: Harris English. Sony: Zach Johnson. AMEX: Matthew Wolff. Torrey: Tony Finau. Waste Management: Sungjae Im. AT&T Pebble Beach: Jason Day. Genesis: Hideki Matsuyama. WGC-Workday: Tyrrell Hatton. The Players: Tommy Fleetwood. Honda Classic: Adam Scott. WGC-Match Play: Matt Fitzpatrick. Valero Texas Open: Chris Kirk. The Masters: Jordan Spieth. RBC Heritage: Kevin Kisner. Valspar: Patrick Reed. Wells Fargo: Patrick Cantlay. AT&T Byron Nelson: Will Zalatoris. PGA Championship: Rory McIlroy. Charles Schwab Challenge: Joaquin Niemann. Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm. Palmetto Championship: Harold Varner III. U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau. Travelers Championship: Scottie Scheffler. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Doc Redman. John Deere Classic: Brian Harman. 3M Open: Dustin Johnson. Wyndham Championship: Webb Simpson. The Northern Trust: Justin Thomas.
RELATED: Bryson DeChambeau listed as a huge underdog for the Long Drive World Championship
By The Numbers:
Courtesy of Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com:
3.72 – The number of strokes gained per round by Jon Rahm since the PGA Championship, by far the best mark in this field. In fact, only two other golfers have gained at least 1.8 strokes per round in that span (Oosthuizen & Morikawa).
4.83 – The number of strokes on approach that Rory McIlroy lost in Round 2 of The Northern Trust. That was the single worst approach round of his career.
49 – The number of years since the PGA Tour has played an event in Baltimore, Maryland. Caves Valley Golf Club required lengthening for the modern player before the tour agreed to return.
69 – The number of golfers in the field, since Patrick Reed has withdrawn. There is no cut this week and the top 30 in the FedEx Cup Standings will advance to the tour Championship.
About our experts